Which path will California take on criminal justice? – Press Telegram

Last holiday season, cities in California reported increased organized retail theft, as shocking videos of “smash and grab” robberies circulated widely on social media.

Mass shooting events are still too common, including the tragic incident near the state’s Capitol just weeks ago. Searching for the causes, many across the state are eager to blame the past decade of criminal justice reforms and prison-downsizing efforts more generally — including those intended to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 — which significantly reduced the size and scope of California’s correctional system. But is this blame misplaced? How are these reforms and crime connected, if at all?

Can we downsize our prisons and jails without compromising public safety?

Perhaps more than any other state, California is immersed in a period of fundamental reform to its criminal justice system.

Since 2011, the state has passed a series of reforms to downsize its massive prison population.

The COVID-19 pandemic furthered this trend, as the state reduced prison and jail populations to slow the spread of the virus. In fact, efforts to limit the spread of COVID reduced populations more steeply and abruptly than any contemporary decarceration reform. California’s incarcerated population is currently at its lowest level in over 30 years.

Research shows these reforms had no impact on violent crime and only a modest impact on property crime. And, while some types of crime have increased during the pandemic, overall rates in recent years remain at near historic lows.

When it comes to public safety and criminal justice reform, California has done many things right. But, it also has fallen short. Corrections spending has not tracked with population declines, and costs remain high. California’s total spending on corrections now approaches the state’s total spending on higher education, and a year of college in the UC system costs significantly less than a year behind bars.

Despite this spending, crime rates have not fallen proportionately, suggesting the state is reaping diminishing crime-control returns on its incarceration investments. And, racial inequality in California’s criminal justice system persists. The state currently ranks 8th highest in the U.S. in terms of Black/White disparity in incarceration rates.

Hispanics are also over-represented in the correctional population, although to a lesser degree than African Americans.

The big question is: what’s next? California is at a crossroads.

We examined possible scenarios for California’s public safety future as part of a new policy and scenario report released in partnership with California 100. At the extremes, one scenario, “Mass Incarceration Redux,” explores a California in which the state seeks to reverse course on the reforms of the past decade. Just as rising crime rates led to public support for the “War on Drugs,” the past decade of reform coupled with historically low crime rates could make voters more sensitive and reactionary to any future crime increases. Whether driven by real, or merely perceived, public safety concerns, if fear of crime threatens the election prospects of the political left, the party may encounter an “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” situation, similar to what occurred following the 1988 presidential election. The result is a massive increase in the incarcerated population, the need for new prison construction, and skyrocketing criminal justice costs. Racial disparities are also expected to increase, as the mechanisms which generated such disparities in the first place get reactivated.

Also at the extremes, in another scenario, “Reimagining Corrections,” a strong economy and budget surplus combine with political will and voter appetite to reform the criminogenic aspects of California’s justice system — reinvigorating interest in the rehabilitative ideal that dominated in the late 1800s and early 1900s.

Rather than reactively rely on incarceration, this scenario seeks to eliminate the underlying structural factors that produce crime, such as poverty and inequality, and in the extreme, could generate efforts to abolish prisons altogether.