California primary results: Who will advance to November?

After Gov. Gavin Newsom overwhelmingly defeated a recall attempt last September by nearly the same margin that he won his first term in 2018, momentum dissipated for a serious challenge to the Democrat’s re-election.

Facing a field of candidates with little statewide name recognition and barely any money to change that, Newsom is expected to cruise to victory again in November.

He appears likely to face Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle of rural Lassen County, who was endorsed by the state GOP. An unapologetic conservative, Dahle also pitched himself as someone who could get more done at the state Capitol than the “dictator” Newsom because of his close relationships with fellow legislators.

But author and nuclear energy activist Michael Shellenberger is hoping he can be a spoiler. Though independent candidates rarely gain much traction in statewide races, Shellenberger has shed his party affiliation and is trying to appeal to the ideological center of the electorate.

There isn’t much doubt that Attorney General Rob Bonta will come first in this race. The big question has always been which of his three right-of-center challengers will come in second, earning the right to challenge him in November.

Democrats have been on a generation-long winning streak for statewide office, making all of the challengers’ campaigns varying degrees of long shot. But in lawyer-speak, they represent three different theories of the case.

A former prosecutor who did his best to steer clear of hot button culture war issues, Nathan Hochman ran on the premise that a Republican candidate with a blue-chip resume, seemingly moderate politics and healthy fundraising is the right combination to win in a year when voters are especially worried about law and disorder.

Sacramento County District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert represents a different approach. A former Republican turned political independent, her campaign is premised on the idea that center-right politics can still play in California, so long as it’s divorced from the deeply unpopular Republican brand. 

And then there’s Eric Early. Hailing from the Trumpian wing of the California GOP, the Los Angeles lawyer made up for his lack of campaign money and high-profile endorsements with conservative cred. In 2018, he ran for attorney general; in 2020, he ran for Congress; and in 2021, he was one of the organizers behind the recall effort against Gov. Newsom. None of those efforts were successful, but they helped the candidate endear himself to the base. Is the base enough? Early seems to think so.

Bonta and his political backers clearly have a preference. They’ve spent more than $1 million to “oppose” Early, while also elevating his profile with voters. A recent UC Berkeley poll, which showed Early coming second to Bonta, suggests they might get their wish. 

The conventional wisdom is that Republican Lanhee Chen and one of four Democrats will advance to the general election for state controller – one of the more contested statewide races in the primary.

Chen, the sole Republican in the race, earned widespread support from the GOP, as well as endorsements from several major newspaper editorial boards. 

That left four Democrats vying for the other spot: State Board of Equalization Chairperson Malia Cohen, state Sen. Steve Glazer, Los Angeles City Controller Ron Galperin and Monterey Park City Councilmember Yvonne Yiu. 

Yiu, a former financial advisor, raised the most funds by far – but only because she put nearly $6 million of her own money into the campaign. The California Chamber of Commerce backed Glazer, while labor groups spent big for Cohen, who is seeking to become only the second Black woman elected statewide. 

An already nasty fight between incumbent Ricardo Lara and state Assemblymember Marc Levine to be insurance commissioner appears almost certain to continue into the November general election.

Lara came under fire during his term for accepting campaign donations from the insurance industry after pledging the opposite, and for renting a second residence in Sacramento at taxpayers’ expense. Levine, who has the support of major newspaper editorial boards, also accused Lara of not doing enough to protect homeowners in wildfire areas from losing their coverage. 

Despite all that, Lara, California’s first openly gay statewide elected official, has the endorsements of the state Democratic Party, its elected statewide leaders and Democratic-friendly groups, including firefighters, nurses and teachers. Lara’s campaign has criticized Levine’s voting record on labor issues. Their two campaigns raised far more than the other candidates.  

Even as the coronavirus pandemic unleashed a wave of parent frustration and political organizing over school closures, California’s top education official largely escaped their ire. Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond ran a quiet campaign for re-election, with teachers unions spending heavily on his behalf and the charter school advocates who fiercely opposed him four years ago forgoing a rematch. Because this is in the only nonpartisan statewide contest on the ballot, Thurmond could win outright in the primary with a majority of the vote. The Republican Party endorsed education policy executive Lance Christensen to challenge him.

Democratic incumbents are seeking another term in four other statewide offices, including Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, Secretary of State Shirley Weber and Treasurer Fiona Ma.

U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla, who was appointed by Newsom in 2020 after Kamala Harris was elected vice president, is simultaneously running in a special election to finish her term and for a full six-year term. His main competition is likely constitutional attorney Mark Meuser, who was endorsed by the Republican Party, though no challenger has mounted a substantial campaign.

Californians may not be used to hearing this, but our votes actually do matter for national politics this year. With Democrats desperate to hold on to their sliver-thin majority in the House of Representatives, some of the most competitive toss-up races in the country are to be found in the Central Valley, Orange County and the northern suburbs of both Los Angeles and San Diego. 

But most of the state’s districts are not toss-ups. They skew decidedly Democratic or Republican. Today’s outcome could leave voters with an election in November between two flavors of the same party — a progressive Democrat versus a moderate; a newcomer against an electoral veteran; a red-meat throwing conservative versus a Trump skeptic. Or, if only one member of the dominant party slips through, today could be the only Election Day that really matters.

While an incumbent lawmaker will be defending their turf in most of these races, it’s an open field by historic standards. This year, six members of California’s delegation either opted not to seek reelection or left early. That, along with new congressional districts, has injected even more uncertainty into a very uncertain election year.

The California Legislature is in the middle of an exodus this year. The combination of term limits, new districts and electoral opportunities elsewhere has resulted in 26 members of the Assembly and Senate departing the state Capitol by year’s end. That gives voters an unusual degree of say over the future make-up of the Legislature — and by extension, the future of state governance. 

Not that any of this poses much of a threat to Democratic dominance of both chambers. Democrats control roughly three in four seats in both the Senate and Assembly. Even with the most optimistic of Republican outcomes, Democrats will still hold commanding supermajorities, giving them the power to pass budgets without any Republican votes. 

But not all Democrats are alike. That’s why some of the most fiercely contested races are in solidly blue bastions in Sacramento, the Bay Area, Los Angeles and San Diego, where labor-backed progressives are facing off against more business-friendly moderates. 

And remember the exodus? In two uber-competitive Assembly districts, in San Diego and Inglewood, this is the final election to decide who finishes the terms of two legislators who quit earlier this year. But here’s the rub: Those same candidates are also running in a primary today to serve a full two-year term. Could one candidate win the short-term special and another win for the long-term? It’s happened before.

The most expensive race in California isn’t anywhere near the top of the ticket: It’s the mayoral contest in Los Angeles, where the billionaire developer Rick Caruso has poured nearly $40 million of his own money into a bid to lead the state’s largest city. Caruso is locked in a contentious campaign against Rep. Karen Bass, who would be the first woman and second Black mayor of Los Angeles, that has revolved around crime, homelessness and Caruso’s past registration as a Republican. A candidate could win outright in the primary if they receive a majority of the vote, though recent public polling suggests Bass and Caruso are headed to a runoff in November, with the rest of the field far behind.

Angelenos will also decide whether to grant a second term to Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva. After rallying Democratic voters four years ago to defeat the incumbent, Villanueva disappointed many by pivoting to become a brash, tough-on-crime conservative who makes frequent appearances on Fox News and has become enmeshed in numerous corruption scandals in his department. Though a large field is running against Villanueva, critics have not unified behind any of them, and it is unclear whether they will be able to prevent the sheriff from winning outright in the primary.

In San Francisco, District Attorney Chesa Boudin is facing a recall in another closely-watched race that could have broader implications for criminal justice policy in California. Elected in 2019, the former public defender promised to increase accountability for police misconduct and shift away from incarceration for low-level offenses. But rising anxiety over property crimes and anti-Asian American hate crimes, as well as major funding from conservative donors, fueled a campaign to remove Boudin from office before the end of his term — one that polling suggests is on track to succeed. Two of Boudin’s allies in the “progressive prosecutor” movement, Contra Costa District Attorney Diana Becton and San Joaquin County District Attorney Tori Verber Salazar, also face robust challenges to oust them backed by local law enforcement.