Report: “The system is failing to deliver swift and certain justice”

SANTA FE, N.M. (KRQE) – A memo presented to the Legislature on Monday, January 17, reveals just how bad crime rates are in the state. Compiled by staff from the Legislative Finance Committee (LFC), the document highlights public safety agency failures, inside information from Albuquerque Police Department officers, a lack of arrests leading to an “accountability gap”, and a lack of crime deterrence in Albuquerque.

In 2021, Albuquerque had a record-breaking 117 homicides. KRQE News 13 published a series of articles exploring the data behind the trend. But we weren’t the only ones researching the issue: The Legislative Finance Committee (LFC)’s memo shows new data that reveals where the criminal justice system is falling short.

“The system is failing to deliver swift and certain justice and thus to create effective deterrence for crime,” the memo notes. “Additionally, while local government and law enforcement agencies have made progress in removing barriers to diversion for low-level offenders and in standing up new diversion programs to help address the root causes of crime, many programs remain underutilized.”

At least 20 New Mexico communities saw increases in violent crime since 2016, according to analysis by the LFC. Albuquerque saw an increase and is now near the top of the list in terms of violent crime rates per 100,000 people, while Cuba and Gallup are the only communities examined with higher rates of violent crime, the data shows.

Story Continues Below

Albuquerque (blue bar) saw an increase in violent crime in recent years. It was among the communities with the highest violent crime rate per 100,000 people in 2020, according to the LFC. Chart from LFC memo.

While the memo makes it clear that there’s no one cause for the increase, the document does suggest there are several key factors that might be playing a role. KRQE News 13 previously reported on social trends related to gun ownership and pandemic-induced stress. But the LFC memo also points to “less proactive policing” by the Albuquerque Police Department (APD) as a potential driver of crime.

“Research shows the certainty of being caught is a more powerful deterrent to crime than severity of punishment. For the criminal justice system, this means it is important to prioritize solving crimes and securing convictions, particularly for serious offenses,” the memo says. But in the 2nd Judicial District, which includes Albuquerque, arrest and conviction numbers have remained relatively constant since the mid 2010s, despite rising crime. The result, the memo says, is an “accountability gap” that continues today. Part of the responsibility is on the quality of APD’s policing during the pandemic.

“Albuquerque officers also appear to have engaged in less proactive policing during the pandemic, though proactive enforcement was a challenge even before the pandemic,” the memo states. “Albuquerque’s violent crime rate rose by 85 percent from 2012 to 2017 and has since remained stuck at a persistently high level. Over the same time period, arrests for violent offenses rose by only 20 percent, resulting in a widening accountability gap for the most serious offenses.”

While APD has been chronically understaffed in recent years, the LFC memo says staff levels are not to blame. And APD has increased staffing in several key areas. The homicide unit went from 10 detectives in 2019 to 15 detectives in 2021, the memo notes. Still, “while these are promising developments, they have not yet yielded substantially improved clearance rates,” the report says.

The clearance rate is the ratio of the number of cases solved compared to the number of cases reported to police. If the clearance rate is low, it means many cases are going unsolved or not resulting in convictions. The LFC memo says that Albuquerque’s low clearance rate highlights a key issue.

“Declining case clearance rates and low conviction rates suggest law enforcement agencies in Albuquerque are not creating effective deterrence,” the memo states. “The flat trend in arrests is reflected in declining clearance rates for both violent and property crimes in Albuquerque, meaning offenders are less likely to be apprehended now than a decade ago.”

But it’s not just APD’s low clearance rates that are an issue, the memo notes. Many cases that are brought to the 2nd Judicial District Attorney’s Office are never pursued.

“The 2nd Judicial District Attorney declines to prosecute over 50 percent of the violent felony cases law enforcement refers to the office, and among the cases it does pursue, 40 percent are dismissed,” the memo notes. In fiscal year 2021, there were 2,270 violent felony cases sent to the District Attorney’s Office, data from the Administrative Office of District Attorneys shows. Just over half of those were “screened out” due to a variety of issues, ranging from problems with evidence to procedural issues, the LFC memo notes.

Of those cases that do make it to court, an increasing number are dismissed. In 2011, about 80% of the violent felony cases taken to court resulted in convictions, according to the LFC. In 2020, only 59% of the cases resulted in convictions, the data shows. 2017 bail reform and a new case management order implemented in 2015 might be behind some of the decline, the LFC memo notes.

Story Continues Below

In the district that includes Albuquerque, felony arrests and convictions are far below the number of felonies reported. Chart from LFC memo. Data from multiple sources; see chart.

“Bail reform may have reduced defendants’ incentive to plea, as research shows defendants who are held in jail are more likely to accept plea bargains regardless of the strength of the underlying case in an effort to secure release,” the memo explains. And the prosecutors often initiate case dismissals, data from the 2nd Judicial District shows.

Although the LFC memo points to shortcomings at specific agencies, it also notes that there are many factors likely behind Albuquerque’s crime trends. Among those are social and drug-use problems in the city.

To dig into the issue, the LFC interviewed APD officers. Their inside information highlighted “drug rips” as a key contributor to the city’s homicide surge.

“Drug rips” are instances where someone would arrange to buy drugs from a dealer, but the buyer plans to rip-off and rob the dealer. Often these are arranged on social media. When the dealer and buyer meet up, the dealer may end up dead in the robbery attempt.

APD officer interviews also revealed that gun use, in general, has increased. So “personal altercations that might have previously ended in fist fights now more commonly led to shootings, simply because more people have guns,” the LFC memo notes.

KRQE News 13 previously reported that gun violence seems to be on the rise in Albuquerque. The LFC found that guns were involved in 79% of Albuquerque homicides in 2021. That’s an increase from historic numbers, the memo notes. Across the city, the number of shots fired rose by nearly 50% from 2017 to 2020, the LFC found. And the majority of those shootings were in neighborhoods with extreme poverty, the memo adds.

Along with the analysis, the LFC memo suggests several expenditures at the state level to help fix the issues. KRQE News 13 previously reported that the LFC’s recommendation for the fiscal year 2023 state budget includes funding key aspects of public safety. The LFC also recommends establishing an Office of Gun Violence Prevention and spending $1 million to fund violence intervention grants.